Every disruption produces the same understandable reaction: bring everything closer, depend on fewer countries and protect the domestic market. Businesses have faced a pandemic, wars, shipping interruptions, energy uncertainty and changing trade policies. It is therefore sensible that boards and entrepreneurs now ask where their products, raw materials and technology come from.
But resilience and isolation are not the same thing. In my view, the right response to an uncertain world is not to close the door. It is to keep more than one door open.
The trading system is under genuine pressure
The World Trade Organization’s World Trade Report 2026, published on 15 September 2026, describes the multilateral trading system as being at a critical juncture. It points to geopolitical tensions, greater government intervention, digitalisation, artificial intelligence and environmental pressures as forces testing rules designed for an earlier period.
The report also reminds us what open trade has achieved. According to the WTO, global trade expanded almost fifty-fold over eight decades. The share of low- and middle-income economies in global trade rose from 23 per cent in 1995 to 45 per cent in 2024. These gains were not shared equally, and that inequality must be acknowledged. Still, the answer to uneven benefits should be better participation and fairer rules—not the abandonment of cooperation.
Resilience comes from options
For a business, dependence on one supplier, one customer, one lender or one route is dangerous. The solution is diversification. A company may retain a trusted primary supplier while qualifying alternatives in another region. It may hold additional inventory for critical inputs, review shipping routes, negotiate clearer delivery terms and monitor political or logistical risks.
This approach is different from attempting to produce everything within one country. Complete self-sufficiency can create higher costs, lower competition and a different form of dependence—on a narrow domestic base. Strategic capacity is necessary in essential sectors, but treating every import as a weakness would reduce choice for both businesses and consumers.
Tools such as the IMF’s PortWatch also show how risk management is becoming more practical. Companies can observe maritime trade conditions and think about disruption before it reaches their balance sheet. Resilience should be based on information, alternatives and preparation rather than fear.
Rules are invisible business infrastructure
Entrepreneurs often think of infrastructure as roads, ports, electricity and digital networks. Predictable rules are also infrastructure. A small or medium-sized business cannot maintain a team of experts in every country. It needs transparent customs procedures, stable commitments and a reasonable way to understand what will happen when goods cross a border.
The WTO report presents model-based estimates—not certainties—suggesting that erosion of WTO cooperation could reduce global GDP by 5 to 10 per cent by 2050. It estimates an even larger relative loss for least-developed countries. Whatever one thinks of the exact figures, the direction is important: when rules weaken, the largest businesses may be able to absorb the complexity, but smaller firms and poorer economies usually face the heavier burden.
India should combine confidence with openness
India has a strong opportunity in a world where companies want more diverse production and service locations. But this opportunity will not be secured by slogans alone. It requires reliable logistics, competitive energy, efficient approvals, skilled people, consistent taxation and contracts that can be enforced with confidence.
Domestic manufacturing and international trade should not be presented as opponents. A competitive Indian factory may need imported machinery, global technology or components, and it may depend on customers abroad. A successful services company may employ people in India while serving businesses across many countries. Strong domestic capability and open international connections can reinforce each other.
What business leaders should do now
After more than 25 years in business, I have learned that uncertainty cannot be eliminated, but exposure can be managed. Leaders should map their most critical dependencies, identify substitutes before a crisis, keep sensible financial buffers and speak regularly with suppliers rather than contacting them only when a problem begins.
They should also avoid making permanent decisions in response to temporary panic. Moving an entire supply chain is expensive and can create new risks that are less visible than the old ones. The objective is not the cheapest system at any cost, nor the most protected system at any cost. It is a dependable system that can continue to serve customers when circumstances change.
My personal view
The world needs a more resilient form of globalisation—one with wider participation, clearer rules and fewer single points of failure. Countries will naturally protect legitimate security interests, and businesses must prepare for disruption. Yet economic isolation would make the world poorer, more expensive and less predictable.
Trade does not remove disagreement between nations. It does, however, create practical reasons to keep communication, standards and commercial relationships functioning. At a time of geopolitical tension, that is not weakness. It is useful discipline.
—Tushar Kumar
Sources and context
Trade-system facts and long-term scenario estimates were checked against the WTO’s World Trade Report 2026: A Critical Juncture for the World Trading System, published 15 September 2026. Maritime-risk monitoring was referenced through the IMF’s PortWatch platform, accessed 25 September 2026. The conclusions and business recommendations are my personal assessment.